DEMOGRAPHIC MONITORING AND FORECASTING TOURISTS’ ARRIVALS AS A MEANS OF OVERCOMING SEASONALITY

Understanding the movement of tourists within a destination and predicting future movements have their practical applications for destination management, product development, marketing and attraction. We analyzed the seasonality of tourist presence in Belgrade, using the ARIMA models, with the aim of predicting future movement. We came to the result that about three-fourths of tourists in this area consist of domestic tourists or residents of Belgrade and people from other parts of Serbia, while the rest are foreign tourists. By increasing the number of foreign tourists there would be a significant economic development both for Ada Ciganlija Island and for Belgrade. This also points to the need for improving marketing and significantly engaging and making this area closer to foreign tourists.