Analiza uzroka globalne platnobilansne neravnoteže

Časopis: Poslovna ekonomija

Volume, no: 8 , 2

ISSN: 1820-6859

DOI: 10.5937/PosEko1402277F

Stranice: 277-300

Link: https://doi.org/10.5937/PosEko1402277F

Apstrakt:
For decades, the US economy have had a chronic current account deficit, which is a consequence of the high trade balance deficit. The highest value of the current account deficit was recorded in 2006 (798.5 billion USD), when the Chinese share in US trade deficit was 32%. Hence, there is a discussion about sustainability of the US trade deficit, as well as the debate about the most important perpetrator for global trade imbalances. China is accused because of the high saving level and depressed currency policy. On the other side, US used the historic privilege of USD as world reserve currency to build a cult of consumption economy. This paper aims to reconsider these statements and, based on the cause analysis of the disequilibrium, define not only the main levers, but also the instruments which can be used for neutralization of this global imbalance. The analysis for each country covers the period 2000-2013 and includes many variables, e.g. current account deficit, savings, investment, interest rate level, etc. The research showed that China brought the referent down interest rate with the investment of excess liquidity, and that the FED did not use any other instrument as a defence of the interest rate level. The FED prescribed the required reserve level, but it failed to respect the rules. The reserve level was allowed to be reduced and thus enabled money supply expansion and low interest rate level.
Ključne reči: current account deficit; surplus; interest rate; savings; investments; China; United States