Tourism flows in Montenegro: a retrospective analysis and forecast for future trends

This paper analyzes tourism trends in Montenegro from 2010 to 2024 and provides a projection for the following five years. The research aims to assess past growth patterns, evaluate structural features of tourism in the country, and forecast future movements using statistical tools and time series models. The findings confirm a positive trend in tourist arrivals and overnight stays, with a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery. The analysis also reveals significant issues as strong seasonality and high dependence on regional markets, indicating structural imbalance in Montenegro’s tourism sector. Forecast suggest a stable annual growth rate in the coming years. To sustain long-term development and increase competitiveness, the diversification of tourism products and the reduction of seasonality are essential. Moreover, improving the quality of infrastructure and addressing the dominance of non-registered accommodation capacities are identified as key policy priorities. The study concludes that Montenegro has the potential to become a year-round Mediterranean destination if strategic measures are implemented to align its tourism development with sustainability principles and global market trends.