TRENDS AND CHALLENGES FOR MODERN TOURISM

Tourism has rebounded strongly after the sharp declines triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused tourism flows to plummet in 2020-21, following six decades of consistent growth. In 2022, tourism´s direct contribution to GDP in OECD countries with available data had recovered to 3.9%, half a percentage point below 2019 levels, and the evidence suggests that the recovery has continued since. The return of international tourism demand, driven by the lifting of travel restrictions, has been a significant driver of this recovery, with tourism’s share of services exports growing to 14.8% in 2022 in OECD countries. Although this figure remained 5.6 percentage points below pre-pandemic shares, international tourist arrivals have continued to strengthen and already exceeded pre-pandemic levels in some OECD countries in 2023.

A full global recovery is projected by the end of 2024, buoyed by positive traveller and business sentiment, with growth anticipated to return to pre-pandemic trends as demand and supply imbalances continue to unwind. However, the recovery remains uneven, and challenges persist. While tourism demand has demonstrated resilience, businesses struggle to attract and retain workers and, although inflation is abating, price pressures continue to impact transport, accommodation, and hospitality costs. Geopolitical tensions remain high, and the increasing frequency of wildfires, floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events is impacting the sector. Looking ahead, tourism is expected to continue to grow steadily in the long run, presenting significant opportunities but also posing renewed challenges. This underscores the need for policies that support a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive future for the industry.