On the Persistence Forecast of Single Home Electricity Power Consumption

Izdanje: Sinteza 2016 - International Scientific Conference on ICT and E-Business Related Research

DOI: 10.15308/Sinteza-2016-183-188

Link: https://doi.org/10.15308/Sinteza-2016-183-188

Apstrakt:
This work analyzes an electricity power consumption forecast for a single home using a various type of generalized persistence models. The predictor composes of parallel banks of simple averaging models (SAM) for each hour within a day. Fitting SAM is performed separately for each day of the week using appropriate training sets of past electricity power consumption. The performance of the predictor was evaluated using real data which represents power consumption per minute measured over almost 4 years for a single home near Paris, France (approximately 2 million data points). Experiments show that proposed system for predicting power consumption one day ahead gave mean absolute value of relative percentage error (MARPE) lower more than 18% comparing to ordinary persistent prediction, without significant computational cost.
Ključne reči: energy consumption prediction; mean absolute value of relative percentage error, persistent prediction, growing window, sliding window

Preuzimanje citata:

BibTeX format
@article{article,
  author  = {N. Farag Abed and M. Milosavljević}, 
  title   = {On the Persistence Forecast of Single Home Electricity Power Consumption},
  journal = {Sinteza 2016 - International Scientific Conference on ICT and E-Business Related Research},
  year    = 2016,
  doi     = {10.15308/Sinteza-2016-183-188}
}
RefWorks Tagged format
RT Conference Proceedings
A1 Naser Farag Abed
A1 Milan Milosavljević
T1 On the Persistence Forecast of Single Home Electricity Power Consumption
AD International Scientific Conference Sinteza, Beograd, Srbija
YR 2016
NO doi: 10.15308/Sinteza-2016-183-188
Unapred formatirani prikaz citata
N. Farag Abed and M. Milosavljević, On the Persistence Forecast of Single Home Electricity Power Consumption, International Scientific Conference Sinteza, 2016, doi:10.15308/Sinteza-2016-183-188